2025-04-17IRS' free tax filing program is at risk amid Trump scrutiny
Moses Lin typically has an idea of what his work schedule will look like a year in advance. Lin, 31, is a wedding guitarist in Southern California and says couples typically book his services 12 to 18 months out.Now, some people are booking him with just a few months’ notice. Lin says peoples’ recession fears could be partly to blame.“Because of the uncertainty in the market, there’s a [feeling of] ‘I don’t know what’s going to happen in 18 months,'” Lin tells CNBC Make It of the urgency he feels from couples. “So it’s kind of like, ‘OK we’re good right now. Let’s spend the money and get out and just do it.”“I even get quite a few people that will reach out, and they’ll be like, ‘What are you doing in three weeks?'” he adds. “It’s great, but it’s also a little concerning.”While Lin says the nature of his service allows him to be flexible to be added to events on shorter notice, he hears from wedding planner friends being asked to arrange high-budget weddings within the next three months, that would normally be planned over a longer period.Small business owners like Lin say that even if their services aren’t impacted by tariffs recently announced by the Trump administration directly, consumers’ anxiety about the economy could hit their bottom line.Consumer confidence in the economic outlook fell to a 12-year low in March, according to the Conference Board, notably before the Trump administration unveiled its full tariff policy that sent the stock market reeling and ratcheted up recession fears.Spending now before prices changeFor months now, Lin says he has seen evidence of couples feeling the financial squeeze: more backyard weddings, smaller guest lists, fewer destination weddings, and overall cost-cutting in certain areas to afford the luxury of others.The return to smaller events could be natural following the post-pandemic boom when people rushed to spend money on in-person celebrations again, even while facing record inflation that has since abated, according to CNBC reporting.But new uncertainty in the economy could spell trouble for business.Lin notes that many wedding budget line items could be subject to higher prices in the coming months. Most flowers are imported from other countries, for example, so if a couple’s floral budget skyrockets due to tariffs, “there’s less money in the budget for everything else, and that’s me,” Lin says. “As things get tight, people have to really pick and choose what’s important and what’s not.”Lin, who says he raised his prices this year and charges up to $9,000 to play a local wedding and up to $15,000 for a destination gig, says he hasn’t felt a drop in bookings this season, but that he’s still cautious of what’s to come. He says he recently gave one of his assistants a 25% raise in what he calls a retention move; if there’s a downturn, he hopes the assistant won’t find a higher-paying job that keeps them from being able to work Lin’s wedding gigs.“There’s a lot of concern in the industry,” he says.The average wedding cost $33,000 in 2024, an 18% jump from 2019, according to a report from The Knot and reported by Bloomberg. Following the financial crisis more than 15 years ago, average wedding spending fell 8% over a two-year period to $26,000 in 2010, according to The Knot data.Saving for later when things might be calmerWhile Lin juggles more short-notice requests from financially-anxious couples, another small business owner says she is worrying about delayed timelines.Rebecca Smiley, 28, a travel agent for her company Smiley Travel, says she experienced a recent dip in booking activity during the industry’s so-called “wave season,” when cruise lines offer their best deals and people typically book their spring and summer travel.Becca RuschellRebecca Smiley quit her job as a college admissions counselor to become a travel agent. She booked over $800K in trips in 2024.Travel planners say bookings dropped during this year’s wave season compared to 2024 because of high prices and advanced bookings.Smiley says some clients discussed pushing their upcoming vacation plans out to 2026, which she says could be due to new Trump tariffs and overall recession concerns.Some clients said they needed more time to save for a trip, while others realize “everything’s a little bit more expensive, so we just can’t make it happen this year,” Smiley says.Now in her third year of business, Smiley says it’s typically the time agents like her work on leveling up in their careers, such as by scaling up their clientele or expanding their business.Smiley says she’s putting plans for any big swings on hold.“I’m just mostly not going to take any risks as of right now,” Smiley says. “This has definitely made us think a little bit before we leap, and that’s where people are with their travel, too. They’re looking into things a little bit more, and thinking twice before clicking the ‘book’ button.”Still, not all travelers see uncertainty as cause for caution. Smiley says bookings resumed in the last week or so, especially among younger travelers who may be thinking, “We’ve lived through so many quote-unquote ‘historical events’ and I want to go on my vacation, dang it,” Smiley says.And some economic factors, like a drop in flight prices, could be good for business, Smiley says. Airfares in March were down 5.2% year-over-year, according to a NerdWallet analysis.“That’s one piece of the puzzle that’s that’s a little bit positive,” Smiley says. “People feel a lot better spending more on hotels and other extras than on overly expensive flights.”Smiley’s confidence in consumers’ travel spending fluctuates “day to day, just like everything else with the news right now,” she says. “I’ve heard some agents compare it to Covid. Some people are really getting hit. Other people are trying to ride out that wave.”Wall Street analysts slashed their earnings estimates and price targets for airlines in recent weeks due to fears of slowing demand, CNBC reports, while CEOs have warned of slowing domestic travel demand.Do you want a new career that’s higher-paying, more flexible or fulfilling? Take CNBC’s new online course How to Change Careers and Be Happier at Work. Expert instructors will teach you strategies to network successfully, revamp your resume and confidently transition into your dream career. Register today and use coupon code EARLYBIRD for an introductory discount of 30% off $67 (+taxes and fees) through May 13, 2025.Plus, sign up for CNBC Make It’s newsletter to get tips and tricks for success at work, with money and in life.