2026-03-04
Primary takeaways: Voters itching for change are eager to put their stamp on Washington
Tuesday’s primaries across three states saw incumbents wobble, general election matchups form and runoffs extend intraparty fights.They also highlighted broader lessons about the state of national politics, from President Donald Trump’s enduring power over the GOP to the disagreements over ideology, generation and strategy that continue to divide Democrats.In Texas, where the Republican Senate primary is heading to a May 26 runoff between four-term Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the question of whether Trump will finally take a side is swirling over the race after other races demonstrated his power.Meanwhile, state Rep. James Talarico won the Democratic primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, NBC News projected early Wednesday morning. And a night of close calls and losses for House incumbents in both parties was full of nail-biting signs for other establishment figures preparing to go before voters later this year.Here are key takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries: Democrats pick their fighterTalarico’s primary victory is also a win for those pitching a populist path forward for the party that goes beyond taking on Trump. Talarico often said on the campaign trail that the fight was more about “top versus bottom” than “left versus right,” taking aim at a political and economic system run by billionaires. Crockett, meanwhile, took more direct aim at Trump, highlighting her clashes with the president and pitching herself as a fighter willing to take him on. The state representative criticized Trump regularly, too, but his argument went broader.“It’s really bout a values orientation, having a moral clarity to call out who is making people’s lives harder,” said Tory Gavito, a Texas Democratic strategist and president of the donor network Way to Win.“I’m not sure we’ve ever had that kind of clear, economic populist message, at least not since LBJ,” said Gavito, referring to former President Lyndon B. Johnson, also a former Texas senator. Talarico’s also pitched himself as a potential bipartisan unifier, while Crockett argued that she could turn out new voters who were more inclined to back Democrats. And he stressed his extensive campaign organization, noting at a recent campaign stop that his campaign had organized 22,000 volunteers. Gavito noted that while Talarico launched his campaign months before Crockett, she entered the race with higher name recognition and a national profile. “It does feel like the strength of Talarico’s infrastructure mattered,” Gavito said. Fight for the future of the GOP drags on TexasThe bitter Republican primary in Texas will drag on for another 12 weeks, as will the battle over which kinds of Republicans can thrive in today’s GOP — and which kinds of Republicans can thrive in general elections, too.With GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt out of the race after facing attacks from both of his opponents, Cornyn and Paxton can now take aim squarely at each other, and they’re both ready for a fight. The primary runoff will be a test over whether longtime legislators like Cornyn, a self-described “workhorse,” have a place in Trump’s Republican Party, or if the combative Paxton can rally the MAGA faithful despite his personal and professional controversies. Despite both Cornyn and Paxton’s chest-beating tone as they touted the first-round results, neither the longtime incumbent nor the well-known MAGA warrior was able to muster a majority of the primary vote. “Elections are about choices, and the choice in the Republican race for the U.S. Senate is crystal clear,” Cornyn said Tuesday night. “I’ve worked for decades to build the Republican Party, both here in Texas and nationally. I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered, and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years.”Cornyn has repeatedly said that Paxton’s controversies, including his 2023 impeachment on bribery charges (the state Senate acquitted him), and his ongoing divorce, will put his Senate seat at risk of flipping in November.Paxton, meanwhile, said Tuesday night that “change was on the ballot.” Throughout the primary, he’s argued that he is better equipped than Cornyn to motivate the MAGA base.“Texans want new leadership. They want someone with a proven record of fighting and winning for them, and that’s exactly what I’m going to deliver,” Paxton said, “Because for too long, John Cornyn has turned his back on us.”Paxton slammed the millions of dollars spent to boost Cornyn ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Cornyn and his allies spent more than $78 million on ads, while Hunt and his allies spent more than $12 million and Paxton and his allies spent more than $4 million. “We just sent a message loud and clear to Washington: We’re not going to go quietly, and we are not going to let you buy this seat,” Paxton said.Democratic lawmakers face populist headwindsA win is a win. But even if one of Democrats’ vulnerable incumbents emerges victorious from her House primary, these primaries came with alarming signs for Democratic incumbents and insiders, amid a rising tide of populism and generational angst in the party. Two-term Rep. Valerie Foushee holds a lead of about 1,000 votes over her opponent, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, in a rematch of a bitter 2022 primary.Allam went after the incumbent as too supportive of Israel, amid rising criticism on the left of the Israeli government’s conduct in Gaza and in its relations with the U.S. The challenger framed the incumbent as aligned with corporate interests. And Allam, 32, argued that she and not Foushee, 69, had the new energy needed to meet this political moment. The race comes after self-described activist and agitator Analilia Mejia pulled off a major upset in a special Democratic House primary in New Jersey last month. NBC News has not yet projected a winner in the Foushee-Allam race. But there are a slew of lessons to be learned in the razor-thin margin: Foushee emphasized her progressive credentials on the trail and leaned into support from colleagues to argue her experience would help the district meet the moment. And she declined support from pro-Israel groups while signing onto legislation aimed at restricting some offensive weapons sales to Israel.In Houston, newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee, 37, narrowly leads 78-year-old Rep. Al Green in their uncalled Democratic primary. Menefee directly called for turning the page and empowering a new generation of leaders, casting himself as the one able to make effective change for the district just one month after he won his seat in a special election.Similar dynamics could play a role in Democratic primaries for key House and Senate seats across the country, putting incumbents and entrenched political veterans on notice.Trump’s powerful endorsementPresident Donald Trump’s endorsement remains the most valuable coin in the realm of GOP primary politics.Republicans want that endorsement. And, as Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, proved Tuesday night, they often can’t survive standing out for failing to get it.Crenshaw had criticized Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and he sparred frequently with figures in Trump’s MAGA movement. While Trump endorsed every other Republican House incumbent seeking re-election in Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina, he declined to give his imprimatur to Crenshaw.On Tuesday, Crenshaw lost his primary to state Rep. Steve Toth.It’s impossible to say with certainty exactly how much Trump’s decision to stay out helped Toth. But there’s no question that it hurt Crenshaw — or that other Republicans will keep the Crenshaw lesson in mind.A slightly different dynamic played out in the Texas Senate primary. Trump endorsed Cornyn in 2020 but held back this year. Cornyn fell short of the majority he needed to win the GOP nomination on Tuesday but moved into a runoff against Paxton.It’s not yet clear whether Trump will pick a horse during the runoff. A person familiar with the White House’s thinking and strategy told NBC News this week that Trump was likely to endorse Cornyn if he kept the race close — and the senator certainly did. Cornyn’s performance could bolster the thinking that he’s a lower-risk way to try to keep the Texas Senate seat in Republican hands. If Trump acts on that line of thinking, that could tip the balance in the primary runoff.Trump’s picks largely did well in competitive House races too — former Major League Baseball star Mark Teixeira, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, Army veteran Eric Flores and former Justice Department official Jessica Steinman all won their primaries with Trump’s support. That said, Trump’s endorsement was not an absolute decider in some of Texas’ crowded primary fields. In Texas’ 9th District, Trump-backed military veteran Alex Mealer is headed to a runoff against state Rep. Briscoe Cain. And in the 35th District, businessman Carlos De La Cruz is headed to a runoff as the second-place vote-getter despite Trump’s endorsement.How Trump’s political picks keep his agenda on track in WashingtonTrump’s approval ratings are sliding, and polls say Americans have soured on Trump’s handling of the two issues that powered him back to the White House: the economy and immigration. But Trump’s political grip on his party extends to governing, too. The long tail of Crenshaw’s struggles and the mad dash for Trump’s political endorsement means that it’s unlikely that any Republican seeking re-election breaks with the president anytime soon. That’s because, as noted above, Tuesday night made clear again that Trump still maintains his bond with Republican primary voters. That’s a useful tool for keeping GOP lawmakers in line with his priorities while his allies in the party control both the House and Senate.Meanwhile, Trump has recently demonstrated that his endorsement can be withdrawn just as easily as it is given. The president flexed his power by rescinding his endorsement of freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd, R-Colo., for breaking with his party and voting to nix his tariffs on Canada.Coming up soon on Capitol Hill are consequential votes on a war powers resolution to limit Trump’s authority to take action on Iran, potentially along with more votes to revoke his tariffs, among other things. Tuesday’s results didn’t add any political upside for congressional Republicans to break ranks on those items. Talarico did well among Latinos. What does it mean going forward?While the Democratic Senate primary in Texas has not yet been called, early returns show Talarico winning counties with sizable Latino populations, on his way to building a lead over Crockett. Latino voters were considered a potentially decisive group in the contest, with Crockett’s overwhelming support among Black voters and Talarico’s edge among white voters standing out in pre-election polling. As of early Wednesday morning, Talarico was winning all but one of the counties reporting election results where more than 80% of the population is Latino.Talarico did court Latino voters throughout the primary, releasing TV ads in Spanish and campaigning in heavily Latino parts of the state. He also had an endorsement from Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, who won a Democratic House primary in a potentially competitive South Texas district. That could be a promising sign for Democrats if Talarico is the nominee. Latino voters have swung toward Republicans over the last few election cycles, especially in 2024, so Democrats need a candidate who can help reverse that trend. These results could be a good place to start for Talarico, though appealing to Latino primary voters and appealing to Latino general election voters are two different propositions.Garrett Haake, Justin Goldman and Alexandra Bacallao contributed.
